Automotive and auto parts industry: new energy automotive industry chain cost control challenges

　　Matter: Recently, four ministries jointly announced the 2016-2020 subsidy measures for new energy vehicles.

　　Security point of view: the new policy significantly reduced the amount of subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2016~2020, the entire cost control capacity of the industry chain is facing serious challenges. But in the long run, the new energy automotive industry will be effectively combing, is expected to stand out of the enterprise is worthy of attention.

　　Subsidies fall amplitude doubled, test the industrial chain cost control ability: the new policy proposed standard 2017~2020 between every two years to reduce subsidies 20%, fall off rate than before the double policy. Estimated cost reduction rate of new energy vehicles will probably fall off the subsidy rate is lower than the speed of the whole industrial chain cost control ability to face challenges.

　　Pure electric passenger car with low technical content. At present our country about 70% pure electric passenger car production structure in the vehicle mileage more than 150km, 2016 subsidy standard for this kind of product is at the end of 14 the draft not adjusted; the remaining 30% models in the most mileage is less than 100km, beginning in 2016 will not receive subsidies. Despite the reduction in the amount of subsidies between the driving range between 150 and 200km, but the type of car market is relatively small, limited impact on the industry. In addition, the new policy requires pure electric passenger car 30 minutes speed should not be less than 100km/h, the current part of the best-selling models excluded from the list of subsidies. In general, the technical content of pure electric passenger cars will be eliminated.

　　Plug-in hybrid passenger car companies need to reduce costs, as soon as possible to open the consumer market: the new policy to fine tune the low plug-in hybrid passenger car subsidy amount of 2 thousand yuan to 30 thousand yuan. From the point of view of the amount of subsidies, little impact. Plug-in hybrid passenger car positioning personal consumer market, the price is crucial. Plug-in hybrid passenger car enterprises should be committed to reducing the cost of the vehicle, with the same level of car passenger car competition advantage. Once the formation of competitive advantage, the demand side is expected to burst, a hitherto unknown speed and intensity.

　　Super capacitor, lithium titanate pure electric fast charging bus. Zhuhai Guangtong and Zhejiang CSR support this technical route. In the past, the new energy vehicle financial subsidy policy, for the super capacitor, lithium titanate and other pure electric fast charging bus subsidies accounted for the proportion of the vehicle price is low, resulting in its promotion blocked, the market is also less.

　　The new policy to further increase the subsidies, the price and the non pure electric vehicle fast charging at the same level as the subsidies, comprehensive operating costs have certain advantages, such estimates of the introduction of new products will significantly accelerate the pace of.

　　Elimination of pure electricity and light subsidies too high policy loopholes, pure TV passengers affected less. In the previous subsidy policy, the pure electric light passenger subsidies are too high, resulting in some models of national and local subsidies and even more than the cost of its policy loopholes. The new policy significantly reduced the amount of subsidies for such models, down by nearly 50%, effectively combing the market segments. Due to the large number of passenger transport, transport efficiency is higher, Ekg generally remain low, the amount of subsidies fell about 10%, the impact of smaller. Plug-in hybrid bus subsidies to further reduce the incremental program affected less. The new policy requires plug-in hybrid passenger car of pure electric driving range of not less than 50km, but currently on the market about 40% vehicles do not meet the requirements, accelerate research, new standards will become an important task of bus enterprise short-term; at the same time the amount of subsidies to further reduce, decrease 10% to 40% range. Due to the program has a longer pure electric driving range, only 6~8 meters subsidy amount reduced by about 30%, the overall impact is less.

　　Investment advice: 2016 new energy passenger cars and large new energy bus subsidies reduced slightly, affected, promising new energy passenger area, and has continued to force the advantages of industrial chain, BYD pure electric bus air conditioning enterprises songz shares. Taking into account the promotion of new energy vehicles is expected to cool, the traditional automotive energy saving and emission reduction is expected to be further confirmed, recommended passenger car start and stop battery leading camel shares.